WEIGHING THE CHANCES OF ADC IN CROSS RIVER STATE: A BIRD IN THE HAND OR A WILD GOOSE CHASE?
Anthony EKPO BASSEY
In the political theatre of Cross River State, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is attempting to stake its claim, even as the state remains largely a battleground for the established giants; APC and PDP. Like a farmer sowing seeds before the rainy season, the ADC appears to be preparing early, hoping that persistence and planning will bear fruits in the long run. But the question remains: is their effort a case of planting maize in dry season, or will patience and consistency eventually tilt the scales?
Politics in Cross River has always danced to the rhythm of big names and sometimes, deeper pockets. The major parties have long been entrenched, and as the saying goes, “when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.” The ADC, for all its ambition, remains a smaller contender in a field dominated by established structures, loyal political networks, and long-standing patronage. In such an environment, a party without deep-rooted financial strength or widespread name recognition risks being seen as a mere footnote. “Empty sacks do not stand upright,” and elections in Nigeria often demand more than good intentions.
Still, the winds of change have been known to blow unexpectedly. Across many localities in Cross River, voters are becoming more politically aware and increasingly disillusioned with promises that vanish after election day. In such a climate, “the grasshopper that keeps its ear to the ground avoids the farmer’s foot.” ADC’s quiet but steady engagement at the grassroots level may yet yield unexpected dividends. It is reaching out to the youths, speaking the language of inclusion and accountability, and in doing so, striking a chord with those tired of recycled leadership.
As the major parties grapple with internal divisions, zoning controversies, and other matters, an opening may well exist for a disciplined outsider to slip through. “Even the smallest axe can fell the mightiest tree, given enough swings,” and if ADC can stay the course, field credible candidates, and mount issue-based campaigns, it might just stir the pot. This would not be the first time in Nigerian politics that a so-called underdog has turned heads. After all, “a new broom sweeps clean.”
Yet, it would be naïve to ignore the mountains before them. Many voters remain skeptical of smaller parties, dismissing them as spoilers rather than serious contenders. Changing this perception is no walk in the park. It will require not only strategy, but charisma, visibility, and timing. “You cannot clap with one hand,” and without building alliances and strengthening its local presence, ADC risks being seen as a lone voice crying in the wilderness.
Nonetheless, Cross River politics has proven unpredictable before. A misstep by the big players, a charismatic candidate, or a grassroots movement catching fire can turn the tide. The political ground may look dry now, but “a dry season does not mean the end of farming.”
In sum, the ADC’s chances in Cross River are slim, but not negligible. They have their work cut out, but “the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong.” If they can hold their nerve, stay focused, and read the mood of the people correctly, they might not win the war in one election, but they could plant seeds that will sprout in the future. Because in politics, “he who laughs last, laughs best.”
